Thursday, February 28, 2013

How Will It Play Out?

It sure has been an eventful week with the markets and some wild swings with the Italian election to start, Ben Bernanke's brilliance and now the arrival of the Sequester. it appears the Stock Markets were expecting another can kick down the road, as equities have been marching to their own tune as of late, with not a care in the world. Did you see that reversal in the final hours of trading today? It appears the market was waiting on late news of Congress working something out and it was disappointed  by days end. I don't know about you but I did not see a deal being worked out on this, but let's see how the markets start out the new month. Things could start to get dicey!

Stocks, you guess- I am tired of it, so much nonsense and all I will preach is to prepare yourself for down the road if and when it does get ugly. Let us have a look at the currencies and we are either going to hold here or the US Dollar is going to get another burst higher. Here is the daily Dollar Index, I hold the opinion that it will fall from this level of 82.
I mentioned the 97 level in the CAD this week and I am of the opinion that this level will hold and the CAD will turn higher from here.
Now the Aussie and 102, I feel this will turn higher from here. If both of these currencies fail here, I believe it has something to say about SLOWING global growth and we need to start paying attention to the stock market and give the TOP-CALLERS some credence!
One more currency that I now feel may start to turn higher is the Euro. I have seen enough this week to make me confident that the Euro is headed higher from the 13050 level. I really do believe the dollar is close to or at a top for a long time to come. If the US Dollar can rally from here that simply means that Stocks will be going down hard and I just do not see that happening in the immediate future!

Lastly, as ugly as the Gold trade has been, I do not see much more downside from here-we are currently just above 1580 after trading as low as 1574 today from 1620 2 days prior. The notion of QE, aka money printing by the Fed, being halted anytime this year has been dashed by Big Ben this week in his testimony. Just BE CAREFUL and ready to move quick if you are going to trade.

Good Night


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