Well, it's Sunday morning June 22 2014, I guess the toughest thing to do is get started. I have been saying I was going to get back to writing about the markets for the past two months now and just was not quite sure how to begin. I could dwell on certain subjects that get me agitated, I could get into where I drifted off to or just give you my take on what I see in the markets as of late. Let's ease back in this morning with what to look forward to this upcoming week and the end of the month.
We can start with my good friends the Dow Jones and S&P 500. When I first started writing to start 2013, my beliefs were that the US equity markets were at an inflection point, back to the highs from 2007, worth watching and preparing for the rise to end with possibly rockier markets ahead. Well here we are today, more than 2000 points higher in the Dow and 400 points higher in the S&P 500. Surprised? In this day and age with what the Central Banks are doing with their bag of tricks, I cannot say that I am at all surprised. We are now in record territory with the Dow is pushing up toward 17000 and the S&P 2000. Will stocks continue onward and upward or could we be nearing, dare I say, a long-term top? Let's watch the price action we get this week going into months end and in this case the 2nd quarter's end.
Now onto my old love, GOLD. If you know me or you were reading me last year, you know I do have a thing for gold. It has been good to me and my family through the years but the past few, sorry to say I cannot say the same. Like many, I was dead wrong with my belief that Gold was building a platform above $1525 to launch its next leg higher above $2000 early last year. It broke my heart, which in trading, I for one should know you should never ever fall in love with any market or its direction. I did however, cut my losses when it broke below $1525 and watch it fall another $300+. I stuck around for a little bit of time before moving on but eventually just lost all my passion for the markets. Who is to say that Gold cannot trade between $1200-1500 for the next several years, that is the way I have been thinking, however there still is plenty of opportunity!
Alright, I drifted a bit there, let's get back to the task at hand and that is looking forward. The markets have been kind of quiet for the past few months, not too many big swings like we have been accustomed to seeing through the past few years. Very rarely do we see a 200 point day in the stock market anymore, the currency markets which are known for wild volatility have seen the tightest ranges not seen in years, the quietest I have seen in the past 14 years. I will write more this week and bring charts along to show what I am talking about, promise. The Gold market has been sleeping, there just has been no interest in entering into the BUY side of this market, NONE! This past week we saw a $40+ move in one day and this past Friday we did hold almost all of those gains, to close out the week above $1300 just shy of $1320. I have to laugh at the ones calling this the end of the bear market in Gold, I may not have been around for a while but I have been watching this whole time. Gold has had some good moves to the upside only to fall apart and trade much lower and make lots of people looks foolish, let's keep an eye on how we trade to start this week. I for one would like to see buying emerge to take out resistance and get above $1320. I would not get really excited until Gold gets back above $1520 and holds there for 3 consecutive days. Yes that is more than $200 from the current price, so we have got a long way to go to get me excited!
Lot's more to talk and write about but I am glad to get the first post behind me. I'll be back tomorrow with more on currencies, bonds and oil. Enjoy your Sunday!
TraderMartin
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