Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Are You Really Watching?

For those who have been following me, you know as of late that I have been watching the currencies most as of late and by Wednesday of last week, I was pretty fed up with the market action. I did not even post anything about the markets since last Thursday because I wanted to see if the Dollar could get 2 weekly closes above 84(I did not think it would) and it most certainly did not. I figured I would enjoy the weekend and not give the markets any of my time or thoughts. I enjoyed my 3 days and I hope you all did as well.

I woke up this morning, saw the markets and was not at all surprised by what I saw. Currencies flat, metals a tad negative and equity futures just roaring. Typical BS from the Invisible Hand that I am accustomed to seeing through the years. You have to admit, equities did not look good at all last week and if anything looked a bit heavy. We have the markets closed on Monday and before everyone even wakes up here in the US, the equity futures are up 100+ points. The sheep see this and the bad week that is now the past, becomes distant memory and the trained sheep just pile right back in to give the Dow a 200 point gain to start the new week! The Invisible Hand does it again, golf clap, the Illusion is alive and well. No better place to put your money than US stocks, take a look
One of my first posts was on the Consumer Confidence number released here in the US. I remember when I first started trading currencies in 2000 and this number was regarded as poor if it was in the low 90's. Today it was reported to be the highest in 5 years, it came in at 76. Put that in your pipe and smoke it! Bottom line is, the stock market is at all time highs and consumer confidence is no where near what it was years ago- do not be a fool sucked in by the headlines.

Now let's take a look at the US dollar, it could not close above 84 last week and looked to be headed back down.
With the help of the consumer confidence report, the dollar got a surge higher well above 84. Again, I need to see some follow through before I can believe that the dollar has legs to stand on!

Now, it is time to pay attention to the US Bond Market, please look a here
Are we going to break? Is the INVISIBLE HAND going to play nice? This is the market we all need to watch this week. This BS of tapering, the BOND market is calling you out!

I posted this video link this weekend but I do not think it was viewed by enough people due to the weekend and my lack of writing. I urge you to watch it, you should get a good laugh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GX4W5PBESg

Good Night
Martin



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