Caution Here!

Today sure turned out to be a bore. First I would like to correct myself from this morning, the fine for RBS was $612 million and not $780 million as I stated this morning. It was early in the morning and I had a ton of things going on with the markets.

Well it looks like we may have a nice trading range to play with the Dow for now, all those losses were quickly turned around for the day and the market finished green at the close. Isn't that something? The saying of the day was "this market just does not want to go down". Why argue with that statement just be on your toes.

Ok, I have one chart to look at this evening and that is the Daily US Dollar Index.

Remember last week how this chart looked like it was going to break lower, well it did not and it caught my eye today. From a technical point of view, this gives the appearance of a market that is headed higher. I want you to know that I am one of the biggest bears on the Dollar long term but I cannot ignore this chart. Tomorrow morning we have the ECB and that is reason enough to cautious, I have been mentioning this all week now and am curious to see what the press conference will bring.

Here is where we need to be cautious if trading in the METALS- GOLD & SILVER. I was looking for Silver to get above 32 and hold. Silver did not see 32 or touch that # all day. I mentioned yesterday that I would think about exiting if it could not get above 32. Gold as well, looked great this morning but could not get over that 1680 hurdle today. My gut tells me we may see one of them ugly beatdowns. I do not want to scare anyone but I have been trading the Metals since 2003 and I just do not like what I see!

If the Gold and Silver do get pummeled, maybe the INVISIBLE HAND will go for the stops below the past 10 trading sessions lows. It would not surprise me and I will be there to buy at much better prices than we see today. If I am wrong about this, I can buy on a breakout or perhaps hold off until next week. I will be watching the employment # out of Australia in a couple of hours to see if that sets the tone to the next 24 hours but the ECB will be the main event of the week.

One last thing I would like to point out is OIL. Early this morning Crude oil was trading down with equities and I felt lucky that Gold and Silver were bid into the opening. The oil inventory was not exactly bullish today so I would not be surprised to see OIL lower tomorrow. I am not a grain trader but I have been watching the grain complex work lower this week as well.

I may post late night this evening with another market that I have an interest in and in my opinion is worth sharing. If I do not, I will post some charts and reasoning in the morning.

Have a great evening and be careful if you are indeed trading!