Smart Men, Completly Opposite

I speak of casino like markets and lots of traders have been chewed up and spit out over the past few years. No one can say for sure what the future holds nor does anyone have a crystal ball. The one thing I can tell you from these past couple of years is lots of traders have been taken to the woodshed from shorting the Stock Market, shorting US Bonds anticipating a rise in rates and being long commodities especially in the past 6 months. Nothing makes much sense unless you talk to the Monday morning quarterback- they of course, know everything!

Most of you know by now that I am bearish on the US dollar, I love GOLD more than anything and I feel that stocks are way overvalued. I have a bearish long term view on US bonds and I feel at some point in time that the US dollar will crash, rates will rise dramatically from where they currently sit, stocks will crash all at the same time and those holding HARD ASSETS will be far better off than those holding their wealth in paper. This will happen simultaneously as the entire world wakes up to the fact that the Central Banks can do no more! Oh Yes, I fear for the worst and certainly believe the shit will hit the fan at some point.

All though I feel the way I do, I realize that the game being played may last a bit longer, maybe years. I must admit, there has been several times in the past few years where I thought the time was here and now and I have been wrong. I have had great success with the metals, bonds, currencies and the US stock indexes. I have also lost money for being wrong but I could have lost boatloads more being stubborn and just sticking with what I believe will happen in the future. My last beating in bonds was 2 summers ago but I exited at 125 in the 30 year Bond, we currently sit above 140! I admit that I did not think GOLD had a chance to break below 1625 earlier this year, that hurt me a bunch, however Gold is still much lower. I really have not been aggressive at all shorting the stock market because I see the game being played, when the time comes to sell, make no mistake about it- stocks are a heck of a lot higher than I ever thought they would be and it would not surprise me to see them higher. I am stunned at the action in the dollar and am ecstatic that we have opportunities to buy other currencies such as the Euro, Aussie and CAD at far greater levels than I could of imagined at this point in time!

Now to my point, we have lots going on with the financial markets and many different opinions. Yesterday, Professor Nouriel Roubini was on CNBC offering his opinion that US stocks would continue on the path of gains for the next 2 years based on the fact that the FED would be there to support the markets with more QE. Today we had Marc Faber warning that stocks are looking vulnerable and telling us something that I have been saying here for the past few months, economic growth is just not there to support the gains in the markets! I will post a link to the CNBC story at the end of this blog, I do encourage you to take 5 minutes to read it through. Lastly, today we have stories with Bill Gross, who I simply admire, come out and blast the FED for overdoing it! I have been saying that there has been way to much meddling by the Central Banks especially the FED in the financial markets and this ILLUSION cannot last forever. I have been warning and I will continue to warn, that when this ends it will end badly!

These 3 gentlemen are far more smarter than me and look at what they are saying. I know there is a lot of confusion as far as what will be the next big move for the FED and the markets. We can watch for now- PREPARE FOR THE WORST and PRAY for the best possible outcome. Enjoy your family and true friends while you can and appreciate what GOD has given all of us!

 I live in Florida and certainly love visiting the beach and relaxing to this. I took this picture and got real lucky having the bird fly by while capturing the crisp break of the wave on a crystal clear day!

Thanks for reading my posts, I appreciate it more than you could imagine.
Here is the article from CNBC with Marc Faber, please read what he had to say today
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100788714

Good Night
Martin