Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Keeping it Simple

The markets are getting very very volatile and trading futures at this particular point in time can be a very dangerous game. I really did not feel like writing anything today but I promised charts on Gold, Silver and the Aussie in my post from last night. The most important one or should I say, constructive is the GOLD chart.
I had mentioned that I would not be interested in Gold unless it got above 1385 and held that level for more than just a couple of hours. Early today we saw Gold hold 1370 and trade up to 1390. It is currently trading @ 1391.5 as I write and has only dipped below 1385 once for a very brief period of time in the late afternoon. Gold has got my attention and it looks like we may get back above 1400 overnight or sometime tomorrow. Truth is, it does not matter what I think at this point because the markets seem to a bit crazy right now, however the US dollar could not look any worse and the US equity markets are not looking too good either. At any point things can change and Gold and silver could get pummeled. If you are going to trade, all I can say is BE quick and nimble. If the market is not doing what you expect it to do in a certain period of time, the SMART thing to do, may just be to exit and wait for another opportunity! Point being, if Gold does not breach 1400 in the coming hours, do not be afraid to pull the trigger.

The Silver chart does not impress me one bit and I think if you are trading Silver, you have more guts than I. I promised this chart last night so here it is. As good as Gold performed today, Silver did not have the strength to get above and hold $22.
The next chart that I will discuss is the Aussie, I had mentioned that it appeared to me to have put in a bottom. I was impressed today that it actually had a gain with the fact that the equity markets were down again another 100+ points. The employment report was released a short time ago, showing a gain in job creation of 1000 when they were expecting a loss of 10,000 jobs. The Aussie was up but has since given up all of those gains. 9350 is the level to watch, if we stay above that, the bottom may be in!
And if you are wondering what is going on in Japan, take a look at this
To that I say, oh my! This what happens when a nation loses faith in in their government. The Japanese Yen is up even higher than the point last week, right now trading at 10550. Yesterday was the biggest one day advance in this currency in more than 3 years, thanks for bringing that to my attention, TRADER DAN! I still think this may turn out to be a great opportunity to sell the YEN, however, I would not recommend doing this via the futures. The way to go, on this trade would be to buy PUT options, this way you know exactly what you are risking and you will not lose any sleep.

Tomorrow morning we have some economic reports to watch here in the States, most important will be the jobless claims and the retail sales. With all the craziness going on, the US markets are sure in the need of some help via good news. If these numbers are for the worse, Gold should have a nice day and the dollar and stocks could be in for some more losses. Could panic start to set in here as it appears Japan is in panic? Be very careful!

Good Night
Martin




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