The Pile is Growing & Growing

The pile of BS that is, don't you just love how the government can go in and revise the numbers from previous months. In February the jobs gain was revised from 268,000 to a whopping 332,000 and March the gains were revised from 88,000 to 138,000 and this month the number came in at 165,000 with the unemployment dropping down to 7.5%. I call BullShit and I am not going to dig deeper into the number, there are plenty of guys on the internet driving themselves crazy doing that. But I encourage you to read the following story
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dark-side-to-jobs-report-big-drop-in-hours-worked-2013-05-03

A huge HOORAY, the S&P is well above 1600 and the Dow finally breached 15000 but could not close above it. I was going to post a bunch of charts to show how the market reacted to this job number but I will only show Copper, Oil, US Dollar and Bonds. Is there really any need to see the stock markets? Ah, I will include a chart on the S&P500 together with Oil and Copper because it is a spectacular view on how fast things can change! So here are 3 of the charts together, please click on the charts and have a look

What a move in the S&P and especially Copper! Oil exploded above $95 and just look at those explosive moves in the other 2 markets. My opinion is that most of the upward moves came from shortcovering, lot's of traders were got caught off guard from the headlines from the job number and had no choice to close out their positions. If you noticed all the gains in stocks happened right after the report and in the first hour of the markets being open! My point is traders reacted quickly to the headlines and will ask questions later, that's the way it works.

Here is what really caught my attention on the day, have a look at then move in the US 30 year Bond

This is the BEST move of the Day, hands down. Had you shorted bonds above 149 right before the report- you could have made over $2000 per contract within minutes and have been done for the day. I am sorry for not showing the opportunity in Bonds this past week but I am just so tired of the manipulation that has been going on, but man that was a great trade! Watch bonds on Monday to see how they behave, it would not surprise me to see them go right back up and make new highs. If they follow through the downside, then I will give credence to  further rising stock markets and the GROWTH story.

Next please have a look at the reaction in the dollar.

Initial upmove and then a reversal. Even the Euro which pushed lower towards 13040, and was hammered the day before due to comments from its Central Bank, had a sharp reversal above 13130 and finished the week above 131. If the job number was truly as strong as advertised, why the reversal in the US Dollar, shouldn't it have strengthened for the rest of the day? I think the largest market in the world, the currency market that is, is calling BULLSHIT as well!

No need for Gold and Silver talk as they held in check however they were not savagely beaten, could the selling be exhausted? This week I will be watching the US dollar and see if Gold and Silver can get above 1485 and 24 respectively and hold for more than a day.

Looks like a great day for a swim!

Enjoy Your Weekend Everyone
Martin