Monday, March 11, 2013

Boring Enough?

I have mentioned in the past how I do not like Mondays, could the markets have been any more boring than they were today? A $6 dollar range in GOLD, I cannot remember the last time I saw that type of trade especially in gold. A positive day in the US equities, jolly jeepers, are you as surprised as me?

Time to get serious here with the markets and what I see. It may be smart to exit short US Dollar positions especially in the Aussie and CAD, I have seen enough and I do believe the Equity Markets are going to start a healthy correction from here at any time. The Dow seems to be tired and I would think it needs a good downward pulse if it is going to go any higher. Will Gold get a flight to safety bid if this happens, I think it should and would love to see how it trades above 1585.

I have not shorted the Dow in quite some time but I believe I am going to start from these levels. I will share one chart that I feel is important and may be a decent trade for the short term. Have a look at the US TEN YEAR NOTE
I believe the INVISIBLE HAND will come in at these levels and defend higher rates, we can't have that now, can we? Falling equities will assist in pushing the bond prices up and rates lower. If you are going to play BONDS to the upside, less risk in the 10 Yr as the 30 Yr can move much more. I do not think we will go much lower than 130 here but the chart shows a steeper fall to 128 could happen.
I am of the opinion that there is more upside potential in the price of bonds than there is downside at this point. I also feel Humpty Dumpty, the DOW has run its course, with not much more gas. Watch Gold closely to see if we can crack 1585 and then 1600 and hold!

Maybe it will be one of those weeks for our Stock Gurus!

Thanks For Reading/ BE CAREFUL
Martin


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